Tuesday, June 25, 2024

The start of a new journey

 I don't have a particular reason for wanting to memorialize this last couple days except that I guess it stands out in my mind enough to be a milestone I'd like to remember through the years.

The month of June is always a busy one in our lives. My wife and I always take a trip in July for her birthday and preparation and planning is always a big part of the June calendar.  There's mother's day in there somewhere, Father's day in there too. We also have a wedding anniversary on the 19th, and my birthday lands on the 24th without fail every year... those dates will matter more as you read on.

This year was the first year on our anniversary that we didn't buy each other anything. We both talked about it at length. We spent so very many years scraping by paycheck-to-paycheck and saving pennies (literally, there's a jar in my kitchen still). Back in those years a dinner out somewhere nice (and by nice I mean Applebee's) was a treat. We'd take each other out to dinner on our birthdays, or mother's day, or anniversary. We would be sure to have SOME kind of gift for each other just to be sure the other knew they were thought of.

So, maybe you can imagine how hard it was for me to get all the way to my 14th anniversary of being married to this amazing woman and literally have nothing for her to offer. 

We both have everything we need. We really do. For the most part we have the things we want as well. Money is better in recent years and if we see something we like, we usually just pick it up if it's within reason. That makes the "what do you want for ______ holiday" question a difficult one because if it was affordable and our spouse wanted it, they probably already got it for themselves sometime earlier.

The hunt for home...

Some of you know we've been searching for land for a home for quite a few years now. We searched on our own for a year or two with no luck. Then we enlisted the help of a realtor friend to help hunt in earnest. I remember thinking that it's only a matter of weeks now, maybe a month or two, until we have that perfect piece of land to build a house on.  And if you're ever in need of one,  I've got a great one. Can you imagine talking and sending info and visiting land together again and again for THREE YEARS without anything being suitable?

That was three years ago....

The real-estate market has been a mess in recent years. People want 350K for a piece of land that you can't even put a house on. I remember 13 acres out near the county line that looked beautiful until you went there and realized it has two valleys, a few hard scrabble trees, a creek running through it, and nothing but solid granite everywhere. There wasn't a place to build a dog house, much less a homestead on. That was our luck time and time again for three long years.

Right after memorial day a place came up on MLS and I took a look at it. I've been so disheartened that I honestly didn't think that much of it. I looked at it myself, and thought to myself that I needed to remind Amy to look at it later. 

Another week went by and I remembered to show it to her. We looked at it together on the computer, went over the plat, the property maps and all the other data available. Finally I called the realtor and told her I was gonna drive out there and have a look at it myself.

After taking a trip out to see it and walking the land myself I started to get my hopes up a little. Maybe this could be it. It's got promise. It's large enough. If I changed the "perfect plan" in my head and allowed a little flexibility in my plan for the perfect land to build our dream home on, then maybe this could be it.

I went out twice more to walk it, just stand under the trees and feel what it would be like if this was my back yard, the place my dogs could run and play, the place I'd clear to build a home. 

Finally we made a phone call to the realtor, went back and forth, made offers, counter-offers, and settled on a price that made both sides feel good about the deal and just like that it was done.. we'd made an official offer on a piece of land.

Coincidentally, that happened on the afternoon of June 19th.

A few weeks before, while sitting in my recliner, I was searching for the appropriate gift for the 14th anniversary. After discovering what the traditional gift was I was even more convinced I couldn't get my wife anything relevant that was sweet, loving, and memorialized the amazing 14 years together we've shared.

It wasn't until two days later that it hit me.

The 14th anniversary traditional anniversary gift is wood. The ideal gift would be something made from wood that symbolizes love.

Neither of us realized it that day.... but we'd just put an offer on 31 acres of nothing but pure wooded forest.

In hindsight, nothing I could ever have made would be as good, and nothing she could buy me from a store would have been as relevant or important to me. 

After being married to this amazing woman for fourteen years, right down to the very day, we finally found a place that we wanted to spend the rest of our lives together, agreed on it together, and made the decision together to go for it.

Sometimes God just reaches down and pats you on the back and says "here you go, son."

The next step

If you've never built a home from scratch, you might not be familiar with the hundreds of decisions that go into it or the amount of those decisions that might not be in your control. Where does your well go? Where does your septic field go? What soil is suitable for the house foundation? Is there too much granite to put it where you want? 

Many of these decisions are out of your control. God and the earth decided them for you hundreds or thousands of years ago whether you knew it or not. It could be the perfect spot but if it won't perc, you can't use it. If it's uphill from the house, you can't use it without a pump system (which is another point of failure in the future). If you can't hit water nearby, you can't build the house there. So many of these things are beyond our ability to control.

I've spent most of a week off and on walking this land searching for perc locations, searching for underground water and wondering where I could put a well. The amount of time I've stood in the woods mentally saying things like "Well, if the house sits here, and I can find water there... no, wait... that wont' work... Ok, if the house is there, and the barn is over there then... crap, that won't work either." 

So I started off with a call to "My contractor." I say that kind of jokingly because it's not like we build enough stuff to have a "contractor" of our own on retainer.

Let me tell you the back story and it'll make more sense.

Backstory

In 2017 my wife and I had decided to remodel Bear Creek Veterinary Hospital, the practice she literally built from the ground up. And when I say from the ground up, I literally mean it. She designed the building, picked the land, and had it built to her specifications. I can only imagine the frustration that construction crew had over the time it took to erect that clinic.

When it came time to remodel it, we needed a contractor. No one in the area I knew had the skill to pull off what my wife wanted so I went abroad to find someone. A referral from my uncle Reese sent me to David Proffit. 

I'll never forget our first conversation. I called David and tried my best to impress him with the vision of what I wanted before he could hang up and tell me "no." Thankfully either he's very patient, or I'm just lucky, or I did a decent enough job, but when I was done painting my picture for him and let him get a word in he kind of sat there silent for a moment and finally said "Mr. Jordan, that sounds like quite a project you've got there.... umm... you DO know I'm a high-end residential contractor, right? I don't do commercial construction. I'm not even licensed down there to do what you want me to do."

I said something like "Sir, that's exactly why I called you. Your reputation precedes you and you... well, you haven't met my wife." I went on to explain that the look and feel she wanted was that of a beautiful place to serve the community and that a commercial contractor was the last thing I wanted.

Long story short, over the next year and a half, David Proffit and I became great friends. He took my wife's vision of what she wanted and created a masterpiece that today is the newly remodeled Bear Creek Veterinary Hospital.

If you've ever set foot in it you would know what I mean. Its the largest, most gorgeous, well built, functional, and simply amazing veterinary clinic you've ever set foot in.

The credit goes to my wife for designing it and to David for making her vision and her dream a reality.

And we're back to the story.

That was in 2018. For the last six years we've remained friends with David, kept abreast of his projects, and he's stayed interested in our lives. My wife told him after he finished Bear Creek that one day he was going to build our next home for us. 

Even back then he was quick to let us know that while that idea certainly appealed to him, he had been building homes for a long time and was starting to look forward to retirement.

Whenever we'd talk over the last couple years he'd tell of what he was doing and we'd tell of our fruitless search for land to build a home on.

Earlier this year he told me he'd officially retired. The house he was working on was going to be the last one and he wasn't even sure how he was going to get through this one. I grew up in the construction industry so I remember my dad and grandfather dealing with the same things.

So when I called him last week to talk about the new property we'd found he quickly reminded me that he was retired. That's fine, I told him. I just respect your skill and your knowledge and I want to pay you as a consultant to help us find the right contractor and help us bring our dream to reality.

I asked if he was going to be down this way because I know from experience that he's got talent for "witching" for water. Luckily he was going to be in the area and agreed to come check out the land and give me his opinion. He agreed and we went out yesterday to visit the land.

We walked for about an hour checking perc locations talking about grading and elevations, hypothesizing about homestead locations, drive ways, privacy and all the other things.

I'd found two locations on the property I liked for home location. After breaking out his dowsing rods, we spent about 5 minutes and located an underground stream about 20 feet from where I most likely wanted to place the foundation. Perfect!

As we're walking back down towards the truck we noticed another vehicle. We introduced ourselves and discovered this was the current owner. My realtor had been relentless in keeping all communication between the realtors so as to be sure things went smoothly so I hadn't met the seller yet.

As we chatted and introduced ourselves, I discovered that he was also a recently retired general contractor for high-end homes. David and Barry chatted a bit and David admitted that one of the reasons he'd retired and wasn't necessarily keen on taking on a home down here was because it was so far out of his area that he didn't have any good subcontractor.

Guess what Barry had? As a recently retired general contractor himself he has a full rolodex of his own crews he's been using all his life. He laughed and said "What do you need? Masonry, Drywall, Plumbing, Framing, Painters.... I can give you my guys for all of it."

Well, dang... I didn't know it yet,  but David's hurdles were starting to disappear in front of him.

I had explained earlier to Barry that Davis was retired but I was using him as a consultant and friend. Before we left Barry kind of smiled and asked David, "So, are you going to be the contractor on this one or not?" 

I remember being surprised when instead of just saying "no" he kind of waved his hand in that wishy-washy way we do when we're unsure and said "Weeeeellllll....I guess that's not really been decided."

WHAT? (ok, don't say anything. Don't mess with the juju. Just hush and carry on. Don't get your hopes up.... )this is what I'm telling myself as we drive back to our house.

Quite randomly my wife messages me and says "Would you like to go out to dinner for your birthday?"

I told her we had David with us but he had no plans and asked if it would be ok if he were to join us. She agreed and for the next hour and a half we sat at dinner and talked about ideas for the new home; plan ideas, detached power meter, barn location, well, basement concepts, everything.

Two hours later we've had dinner and we've talked about everything you'd imagine someone talks about when imagining building their first (and hopefully last) home together and we're back at the house.

While sitting around the dining room table, Amy finally just looks across the table and asks David in her sweetest-I-know-what-you're-gonna-say voice... "David, are you gonna be our contractor?"

As I start to think "oh, man, talk about putting him on the spot" he kind of half grins, half bows his head in defeat and says "Yeeaaahhh, I am." I mean it was kind of drawn out of him long and slow.... yeeeaaahhhhh.... I am.

She literally jumped out of her chair and I start banging the table and she high-fives me across the dinner table... we have our contractor!

And THAT was my birthday present!

So on our anniversary we made the offer on the land, and on my birthday a week later we have our builder and it's the one we've been saying we wanted for the last six years.


Looking to the future...

Looking forward, I don't know what to expect. I don't know what it's going to hold for us. I DO know that I want to remember and hold on to the feeling I have right now - the feeling that we've had a dream for so very long and in a matter of days it started to come together.

I want to hold on to the feeling of walking through those woods and looking at the land and imagining what this can be when we get to the end of the journey - or really to the beginning of the next journey.

I spend some days feeling... average. I'm an average Joe - to borrow a phase from my wife - "workin in the dirt" and I don't have the time to stop and appreciate how truly blessed I am.

Then I have moments like this in life - truly the moments you can go your entire life and only experience a couple of times - where I look at the amazing wife I have, at the life we have together, at where we came from and where we're looking ahead to - and it will almost bring me to my knees. 

I remember, as does my wife, when we had $35 and it had to stretch to buy a week's groceries. That was what we refer to as the "Aldi years" in our marriage. I remember her working 70 hours a week, me working 70 hours a week, and barely being able to make ends meet. I remember Aldi brand peanut butter is NOT Skippy and Aldi brand Fruit Loops are an abomination that should be considered crimes against humanity! I don't ever want to forget those years - but I also don't want to live in fear of going back to them.

Circumstances could change tomorrow. I absolutely know that. But you also can't live in fear. We're both 47 year old now.  I think it was John F Kennedy that said "those who dare to fail miserably can achieve greatly." 

I don't want us to look back thirty years from now and wonder what could have been if we'd only taken the leap. I'd rather take that chance, take that leap, and give it everything I've got in me to give my wife the the life and the peace and security and tranquility she deserves in a home she loves on land that she calls her own, surrounded by nature, tall trees, and the deer in the back yard. 

So far in the few times I've been out there I've found deer, coyotes, black snakes, hawks, turkeys, and no shortage of ticks and red bugs too!

It's going to be hard. There are going to be days I want to give up. We're going to fight about things - floor plans, money, and the innumerable headaches that come with building a home - especially when we're both strong-willed and hard-headed people.... but if absolutely anyone on this earth can do it, I think it's us. Ok, it's mainly her.... but I'm stronger because she's my inspiration.

If you do nothing else in life, as a man or a woman, do this one thing - find someone that makes you realize you'll do absolutely anything to make them happy. I don't mean that in some cute emotional kind of way. When you've found it, you know it and it's like nothing else. It's not a cute, soft feeling of joy or love. It's not giggles and smiles over pancakes at breakfast.  It's deeper than that. It's something that galvanizes in your bones and adds to who you are. It doesn't take away. It builds itself in you. It's something only they bring out in you, only they can make come to the surface, and ONLY they know they should never fear. But everyone else, every single person you ever encounter, should truly fear coming between your inspiration and their happiness because they know you'll burn the world to ashes for them if need be.

Find that person that makes you realize that you have it in you to conquer absolutely anything and destroy any hurdle that stands between them and the happiness you know they deserve. 
  
I've found that for me. I've found the only person on God's green earth with the grit, determination, patience, sarcasm, and love enough to put up with me. Find that person and ANYTHING is possible.

This didn't start out as me writing about my wife, but in reality it's always about her. The house, the home, the land, the success. None of it means anything without her. Find that person. They're out there and whether you know it or not, they're searching for you too, even if they don't know it.

In conclusion

The journey has begun now in earnest. I've been away from writing for a long time but I hope over the next little while I'll have the inspiration to share more stories again. Some of them will be "Hey, look at this great idea I had!" Others will be good for the next book I write titled "Things to never do when building a home."

Either way, it'll be a journey worth living because of who I get to live it with!

Friday, October 06, 2023

A race to the bottom: Inflation, Recession, and the Job Market

 Prelude - yes, I decided to dust off the old blog, actually the ORIGINAL blog,  for this article because I've turned some of the others off. I've gotten too busy to maintain all the separate sites so I decided I'll just post content here if I want to share something off of social media. (It can't get banned here lol).


Race to the Bottom

I'm not an economist.  I don't have a masters in sociology or anything else related to the human condition, but I do live here amongst the rest of us and I listen to the news pretty much daily and as I hear and read these articles on multiple subjects I can't help but feel like they're connected. I find myself wondering if the economic analysts and the jobs analysts and the market analysts ever just get together and have a drink and share ideas. Because some of this is just too common sense not to be related.

Worker Strikes
We're undergoing quite a few strikes across the country right now. Writers guild, actors guild, healthcare workers, union auto workers, and probably a dozen more I don't know about. They all have one thing in common; they're about money. Everyone wants more money. I'm neither agreeing nor disagreeing with their stance. I'm merely pointing it out. Most of them feel undervalued in one way or another and that value is normally equated somehow to a financial figure. I don't need to dive much deeper than that for most of these organizations to make my point.

Jobs Market
The news today in one podcast mentioned how we added 336,000 jobs in September, which blew away the expected number of 170,000. So we DOUBLED the number of jobs they expected to be filled in September. Keep that in mind and consider the next paragraph.

Unemployment is high
Unemployment is at it's highest since Feb 2022 - so almost two years. But the same report says that unemployment is low and stable, resting around 3.5% right now. Ok... where are all these workers?

Entire job fields are suffering

So if unemployment is low/high/stable (still can't make sense of that one) and we're adding 336,000 jobs a month - why is almost every major critical field suffering from not being able to hire?
Doctors - overworked and under staffed.
Nurses - overworked and understaffed.
Veterinarians - none available despite tremendous salary increases in recent years.
Veterinary Technicians - same argument. Not enough to go around.

I listened to a podcast today where a college is coming under fire for not being able to accept enough students. More students want to go, but there's not enough professionals to instruct them, so classes are fewer and far between because they can't instruct them - which means less of them coming into the job market in 4 years - which means even less instructors in 5 years - which means even less coming into the... you get the idea right?

People aren't taking jobs:
It doesn't matter if its fast food, fine dining, retail shelf stocking, manufacturing, or neurosurgery. People are simply NOT taking the jobs they normally would. It's not 100% a lazy entitlement attitude, though I firmly believe that exists in higher percentages than any other period in our history. It's math. The reason they're not taking the job is math.

Employers have increased wages maybe 10% to attract employees. That's great...except that anyone that's ever gone grocery shopping knows that inflation is leaving that figure in the dust. 

Do I really need to be the one to explain this?
Let's do this barney-style.

Let's base it on coca-cola - a simple drink people purchase.
Three years ago it was $5 for a 12-pack.
Last year it was about $6.50 for a 12-pack.
Today it's $8.00 for a 12-pack.
These are walmart prices - not bougie higher-end markets.

So in 2021 coke was one price. Then it jumped 33 percent in a year. Then it jumped another 19 percent this year (so far).

But let's use actual normal inflation numbers for food:


If you wanted to match that with a given hourly wage - and I'm a normal employee somewhere that used to make $11 an hour but now you're offering me $15 an hour, how does that breakdown for my grocery bill? And let's further assume I used to have a grocery bill of $100 a week in 2020. (That's about what ours was a couple years ago).

My weekly grocery cost in 2020: $100 = $5,200 a year.
My weekly grocery cost in 2021: $103.94 = $5404.88 a year.
My weekly grocery cost in 2022: $114.28 = $5,942.56 a year.
My weekly grocery cost in 2023: $120.43 = $6,262.36 a year.

Now, let's factor in just rent increases. That's one that a huge percentage of people are dealing with.
NC inflation for rental prices jumped 20% in 2022 over 2021. In 2023, the total jumps to 32% higher than 2021.

Median rent is currently $1,183 per month in NC in October 2023, so let's roll that back to get good numbers. I'm going to use $1,200 to have an even number to work with.
2021 median rent: $806.40/month = $9653.28 a year.
2022 median rent: $960.00/month = $11,200.00 a year.
2023 median rent: $1200/month = $14,400 a year.

That's just two simple figures - groceries and rent. Literally only putting food in your face and a roof over your head. That's not counting heating it, cooling it, cooking in it, water, etc. Just two things every single one of us have to deal with in some form or fashion.

So, these two costs alone change as follows for rent and groceries.
  • 2021 - $15,058.13 per year.
  • 2022 - $17,142.56 per year.
  • 2023 - $20,662.36 per year.
Let's say I made $11/hour in 2020 and you've now raised me to $15 an hour in 2023. I work 40 hours a week at a regular job, no fancy vacations, but assume I get about 1 week off a year and we can't factor in overtime because that's unknowable.

In 2021: my total salary would be $22,400 per year gross, so about $17,054 take home pay.
I literally have a total of $166.36 a week to survive on for clothes, gas, medical costs, etc.

In 2023: you're bumping up my pay, so now at $15/hour it would be $30,600 per year gross, so about $23,256 a year in take home pay.

I literally have a total of $216.14 a week to survive on for clothes, gas, medical costs, etc.

Between 2021 and 2023, the cost to survive in America for a normal person paying a normal rent and a fairly small grocery bill for a family, has jumped 27%. That's literally only factoring TWO parts of life. Let's not even TALK about car payments, loan interest, etc.

So a pay boost from $11 to $15 for every employee out there, isn't actually a raise. It's literally EXACTLY level with the cost of living (using only 2 points of reference).

In laymen's terms, a $4/hour raise is literally, at the VERY BEST, allowing me to bring home close to what I brought home three years ago. It's absolutely ZERO points above the cost of living, and if you factored in everything else, it's probably less.

That's just math -feel free to do it yourself. I spelled it all out so you can check my numbers.

How do businesses solve it?

Solving it for businesses is simple. You want to know why Gatorade is now $3 a bottle instead of $1.79? One reason is they have to give employees more money. They raised prices and passed the cost on to you.
Coke has jumped 50% in three years.
Batteries, smokes, jeans, rubbermaid, dishes, you name it and the cost has gone up.

Let's say businesses on average jump prices about...oh I dunno... 27% to match the cost of that raise they just gave employees. 

Guess what?
Next year, the cost of living for your employees, just jumped a matching 27%, which means in order to bring home the same thing they did in 2023, you're going to have to give them a raise from $15/hour to $19.05/hour just for them to bring home the same money and survive.

It's a literal war between commerce and workers.

Companies have to raise prices to meet demands of, among other things, recruiting employees. Employees have to demand more because all the things they buy are going up because of the rise in demands to meet their salary requirements. No one is getting rich. Everyone is skating by at best. Prices still keep going up because ONE side has to give in first or the system will never stop growing out of control.

How to workers solve it?

They stop taking the jobs. They're finding work... somewhere they're finding work. They're bunking up with four people in a two bedroom apartment somewhere to make ends meet, but they're not dying in the streets in droves or wandering into FEMA homeless encampments, so they're doing it somehow. How long they can sustain it remains to be seen, but they're managing to do it.

But now they can't take that job at $15 an hour because it takes $19 an hour just to keep the lights on. Forget about saving for the future, or putting a down payment on a new car. That's not in their future at the moment.

Colleges are turning out less doctors, veterinarians, police, fire fighters, engineers, and more. The demand for those jobs is steadily going up. You think you've got it tough hiring employees for $19 an hour and figuring out how to pay for it? My wife owned a veterinary practice.... built it from the ground up herself over 17 years. We tried for THREE years to hire veterinarians. You know why? This will blow your mind...

Veteran doctors, herself included, were making around $85K-$90K per year gross. New grads - and I mean ALL of them - are demanding $125K to even show up to an interview. Let that sink in for a moment. Imagine having to hire someone at $125K when the doctor you work beside that's been a doctor for 30 years is making $85K. 

Imagine having to hire 4 more police officers at $55K a year (plus their related law-enforcement retirement costs) when the ones you work with that have been there for 15 years are making $44K.

You can't do it. To attract police officers currently requires about a 50% increase in what's being offered. Veterinarians is about the same 40-50% pay increase to get them in the door - and these are NEW people, fresh off the boat, no experience at all.

Doctors? Ha! I've got a doctor friend, relatively young... she didn't even consider taking a job (fresh out of college) unless it paid over $300K a year on DAY ONE of their employment. (And they got it by the way... people lining up to pay it... because they desperately need doctors.)

We're literally in a race to the bottom

I look at this from the outside and wonder if anyone else sees this? The only solution I see is for the government to get out of the way, let the inevitable recession happen, let free-market economy fall through the floor and eventually re-stabilize at something probably similar to 2017-2017 levels, and start again. 

Colleges will fail for a bit as they realize that on one is willing to pay $46,000 a year for a basic education. Professor's salaries will drop accordingly. Police forces will continue to decline until costs drop to where they can afford to take that job for a price the department can pay. That back and forth will go on across all industries as each market settles back into its equilibrium and then settles against each other's new pricing realities.

Am I wrong?
Discuss...






Thursday, June 09, 2011

Transitioning the blog

If you've been a follower here on Jordan Life (formerly Scooby Central) you'll notice there's been less and less posting lately. That's because I've kind of become re-invigorated to work on my old website, carolinaregion.com. There's no much new code out there that I can finally do more on my own host than I can here on Google's hosted blogs.

Im not deleting this blog and will probably go back to co-publishing in both locations, but the old way I used to co-publish doesn't work as well with the new blog structures, so for now I'm mainly posting on Carolina Region.

Come visit me at http://carolinaregion.com